Colombia GDP whisper slowed in 4th quarter but hit file in 2021

By Nelson Bocanegra

BOGOTA (Reuters) – Colombia’s economic whisper potentially slowed in the final quarter of 2021, but is anticipated to possess hit a new annual file after authorities lifted coronavirus curbs and adopted mighty insurance policies, a Reuters ballotshowed on Friday.

Fixed with the median forecast from 16 analysts, Colombia’s fourth-quarter snide domestic product (GDP) is forecast to possess grown 8.5% when put next with the year earlier, slowing from 13.2% in the third quarter.

That would shriek overall 2021 whisper for Latin The USA’s fourth-most tasty economic system to a file 10% after it shrunk 6.8% in 2020 for the length of the worst of the pandemic’s economic impression.

The Andean nation’s whisper used to be led by household consumption, with spending of financial savings accumulated for the length of the pandemic, as neatly as stable fiscal spending and historically low pastime rates, analysts mentioned.

“A favorable external environment, the absence of restrictions on mobility … and mighty macroeconomic insurance policies on the fiscal and monetary entrance would’ve supported a important recovery in GDP in 2021,” mentioned Itau bank analyst David Cubides.

The government’s DANE statistics agency will publish the 2021 recordsdata on Feb. 15.

On the opposite hand, whisper would possibly presumably gradual to 4.1% this year, in response to the ballot’s median forecast, with excessive inflation expected to immediate the central bank to additional carry pastime rates to rein in prices.

Additionally, the economic system would possibly presumably additionally desire to contend with lower fiscal spending and uncertainty earlier than presidential elections on Would possibly possibly 29.

“Indubitably, politics will doubtless be key to economic performance this year and there would possibly be a non-negligible threat that it would possibly possibly most likely presumably affect recovery, as neatly as the medium-time duration outlook,” Andres Pardo, the head of scheme for macroeconomics in Latin The USA for XP (NASDAQ:) Investments, mentioned. Pardo added, stable oil prices sure funding climate must mute underpin whisper.

Colombia’s economic whisper is anticipated to gradual additional to a pair.3% in 2023, according the median of ballotresponses.

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