India on Monday instructed its forces to prepare for war if an escalating conflict escalated along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), which is the long-disputed border between India and China. Chinese aggression poses an existential threat, “India’s ruling elite claims, while Beijing treats border disputes as a secondary issue, publicly asserting that differences over the Indo-Chinese LCL should not define their bilateral relations. Faced with heightened territorial tensions with China in the South China Sea, the Philippines has reversed its decision to end a key military agreement with the United States.
Analysts suspect that China’s aggressive stance in Ladakh is an attempt to warn India against closer ties with the US and that it is behaving in the South China Sea. Chinese strategists are similarly concerned that India could send its attack submarines into the North Sea to intercept Chinese naval forces sailing through the Indian Ocean. Indian attack submarines are there, which could significantly increase the deployment of its troops there. The South China Sea is reported to contain some of the world’s largest oil and gas reserves, as well as a significant amount of oil, gas and coal.
If Beijing increases the heat in Ladakh, India’s navy can poke in the sea, and if it can, it can. In particular, China could come into conflict with the US over the South China Sea dispute. Indeed, the dispute in and around China has only escalated, but China claims large parts of the North Sea and Indian Ocean.
From a military perspective, the United States should consider supplying India with much-needed military equipment that would offset China’s capabilities relative to its arsenal. While tensions with China raise the specter of war, New Delhi has also taken an offensive stance in the western Indian Ocean. The US Department of Defense should pursue a long-term strategy to support India, so that confrontation with Beijing is confined to the Himalayan theater and a large-scale war between India and China extends beyond the maritime realm.
Restoring the status quo: The India-China retreat may result from a more proactive Indian balancing agenda, which would project India’s ability to withdraw from China owing to strong Indian military power. China can respond to developments in China, while China remains focused on the threats to the United States. Even if India – China – peacefully escalates the current crisis, China’s apparent intentions are likely to motivate a more proactive “Indian balancing agenda.”
While some aspects of India’s planned military modernization, if fully implemented, will undoubtedly help stabilize the India-China military equation, others will do little to offset the threat posed by China. If the United States cannot work with India to realize its considerable military potential, Washington will be frustrated by China’s efforts to become the dominant military power in the Indo-Pacific region.
While the United States has established warmer relations with India in recent years and is more frosty toward China, the current border situation could undermine the Indo-Sino relationship. The Sino-Indian war of 1962, which nearly led the US to war with China and nearly cost its life, could escalate. Both India and China have declared a nuclear policy (NFU) that, in theory, should prevent escalation of border conflicts at nuclear levels. Analysts cite the need to link the region with roads and runways in the Galwan Valley, and the growing close alliance between the two countries “armed forces, among other reasons.
China also used its state-backed mouthpiece, the China Global Times, to threaten India on Wednesday as border tensions escalate. Buck (Rep. 9) called on China to “immediately end all provocations and strictly control China and control the actions of the Chinese Communist Party, which means there is no need for further escalation of border conflicts in the Galwan Valley or elsewhere,” the report said. India should learn a bitter lesson and suffer a great loss, as it did in 1962 when it instigated a border dispute with China, “the Global Times said at the time. In detail, he argued that the June 15 conflict should be understood as a warning to India and China about the dangers of nuclear weapons and nuclear-armed conflict.
The Americans should be concerned about any interference in the conflict between India and China, even if the US authorities give India their full support, NDTV quoted him as saying. Given the recent escalation of tensions between India and China in recent weeks, this is more important than ever, “NDTV said.
The United States has made clear that India will play a crucial role in shaping the military balance in Asia, and the Navy has sent two aircraft carriers to the strategic South China Sea to bolster its presence in the region, a senior White House official said. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said the border between India and China should be marked out, because there will always be problems, but the two countries should implement their leaders “consensus and not allow differences to escalate into conflict. To allay fears that future Chinese military action along the border could be aimed at advancing its territorial claims and helping contain a military crisis between India and Pakistan, China must resolve the territorial dispute with India. Rather, the US military will continue to stand by India’s right to self-determination and sovereignty over its own borders.