Tighter coronavirus restrictions, not U.S. elections, are the ‘biggest near term risk’: UBS

Story Highlights
  • Economies around the world are increasing movement restrictions as they continue to fight the coronavirus pandemic, and that’s a “major downside risk” for the fourth quarter, according to Swiss bank UBS.
  • “Forget about the U.S. elections or fiscal stimulus — restrictions creeping higher is the single biggest near term risk to the outlook,” Arend Kapteyn of UBS wrote in a note.

SINGAPORE — Economies around the globe are expanding development limitations as they keep on battling the Covid pandemic, and that is a “significant disadvantage hazard” for the final quarter, as indicated by Swiss bank UBS.

“Disregard the U.S. decisions or monetary improvement — limitations crawling higher is the single greatest close to term danger to the viewpoint,” financial expert Arend Kapteyn wrote in a note dated Oct. 19.

“In the event that nations begin to force ‘electrical switch’ lockdowns that last only half a month, that may as of now be sufficient to turn a positive (final quarter) development rate negative,” he said.

The expression “electrical switch” has gotten mainstream in the U.K. furthermore, alludes to a short however severe lockdown expected to break the chain of disease.

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There have been more than 40.6 million instances of the Covid around the world, and at any rate, 1.12 million individuals have kicked the bucket, as indicated by information ordered by the Johns Hopkins University.

Different economies including France and the Netherlands have fixed measures lately, Kapteyn composed. UBS has been following Covid versatility limitations in 42 topographies week after week since March on a size of one to 10.

As per the bank, if limitation increments by one for a whole quarter, GDP will decrease by 6 rate focuses.

Throughout the most recent month, the U.K. what’s more, the Netherlands have expanded from a “moderate” rating of 2.5 to an “transitional” level of 5. UBS additionally expanded the Czech Republic’s score by 2 to 4.3, and Ireland and France by 1.5 focuses to 4.5.

The middle degree of limitation is 3.5, up somewhat from August, yet down from 8 in April.

“In any case, the quantity of nations taking measures has been expanding,” Kapteyn said. A week ago, 13 economies expanded limitations, while three brought down them, the most elevated “net” number of increments since April.

“We’ll have to screen how long limitations remain set up and how versatility reacts, yet this is currently a significant disadvantage danger to our figures for (the final quarter),” he said.

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