A poll showing Joe Biden ahead of Donald Trump has him beaten in the polls for the first time since the start of the 2016 presidential election cycle. The latest Military Times poll shows Biden with a one-point lead over his rival Hillary Clinton in the general population. Biden’s one-point lead, however, is well within the poll’s margin of error, suggesting the race is essentially tied. Just News shows the continued decline in support for Mrs. Clinton and a 12-point drop for Mr. Biden nationally.
In a poll taken at the start of Trump’s presidency, 46 percent of soldiers had a favorable opinion of Trump, while 37 percent had a negative opinion. Trump has used Twitter to trumpet his own figures, which he has been collecting for years without citing a source, and has invested heavily in regular ads on Twitter. According to the Military Times poll, if elections were held today, Mr. Biden would win 48 percent of the vote. That would worry any sitting president who has received less than 40 cents a point in an election.
In an October 2016 Military Times poll, about 34 percent of respondents said they would vote for Mr. Trump or a third-party candidate like Bernie Sanders or Jill Stein, and 13 percent said they would vote for third-party candidates. About one in 10 white and 0.1 percent black men said they would vote against Trump, but 0 percent of black women said they would vote against him. Nearly 9 percent want to skip the election altogether, according to the poll. Although the company’s forecast for this election was actually one of the closest of any major pollsters, it also predicted that Mr. Trump would win the popular vote. Instead, he lost it to Hillary Clinton by one point and the general election by two.
Other polls conducted in North Carolina this month also suggest Biden has a slight single-digit lead over Trump. But the comparison is somewhat muddled: by this time in 2016, Bernie Sanders had not yet won the race, and Biden’s lead in most national polls was consistent with results from past presidential elections that were close enough to be contests – by state. He stressed that Joe Biden and Trump are “exactly where they were at the end of September” and that “the needle hasn’t been moved” because the candidates are at the point where the races are too close to call, he said. Republicans in Congress, surveyed by the Center for Politics and Public Policy at Winston State University.
Trump has overtaken Clinton by as much as 10 percentage points in neighboring North Carolina in the past, according to polls, but not as much in recent months.
Trump has a slight two percentage point lead over Clinton, but he won the state and all 16 Electoral College votes by just three-tenths of a percentage point. The latest NBC News / Wall Street Journal poll also shows a tight race between Trump and Clinton in North Carolina, with Clinton up two percentage points. Trump ended up beating Clinton by 8 percent, and he won’t be in the White House because he won that state or any of the 16 districts in the states with just over three-quarters, 1.5 percent, of the vote.
Two more polls this month in New Hampshire Biden is slightly ahead of Trump in Michigan, too, but not by two percentage points. These polls, conducted between October 8 and 12, are pretty much in line with other polls conducted in October, which put Biden’s lead in Michigan at between 6 and 10 points.
Democratic candidate Senator John Kerry was beaten by 17 points in the 2004 Georgia election by President George W. Bush. The Republican lead has since shrunk, with Trump just five points ahead of Clinton in 2016. But Trump’s support among Missouri independents has dropped from 61% support during the 2016 election to nearly 50% who say they will vote for him in 2020. Support for Trump in Missouri has fallen compared to 2016, but not as much as for Clinton.
The modest decline in evangelical support is important because it is a large demographic, and 45% of Missouri voters identified as evangelical in 2016, compared with 40% who did so in the July poll. Democratic candidate in 2020, while 74% say they would vote for Trump, while Biden’s 20% do. Support for Republicans in Missouri, where he won more than half of the vote (52%) in his party’s primaries (47%), but not as much as in 2016.
College graduates have dropped from 55% support in 2016 to 41% in this poll, and while Trump still has strong support among college-educated voters, support for him has fallen sharply among those without degrees. About half of those who say they would vote for Trump (49%) and Biden (45%), while only about half (46% and 44%, respectively) of college graduates and those without college degrees say their party’s nominee will do so in 2020.