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Betting rates in the last presidential election have risen, and there is no indication when polling stations across America will open. Numerous polls show former Vice President Joe Biden with a wide lead over President Donald Trump in the race for the presidency of the United States of America. Among voters who report having cast their ballots, more say they would support Biden if the election were held today than anyone other than Trump, including Gary Johnson or Jill Stein. A large portion of registered voters say they would support Joe Pence if elected today.
White voters favor Trump by a wide margin over Biden: 54% said they would turn to Biden, while 42% said they would lean toward Trump. By contrast, there is a significant gap between those who say they are more for Trump and Biden. Asked who they would support if they had to choose between Biden and Trump, Jorgensen replied: “Voters are evenly distributed.” White voters, white voters in general, and white Democrats in particular, overwhelmingly prefer Trump to Biden – consistent with how Biden performed in recent presidential elections, such as against Barack Obama in 2008 and Hillary Clinton in 2012.
Slightly more voters, by a 48% to 43% margin, believe Trump will win the presidential election than Biden. The national average of polls also gives Biden an edge but has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points, or 0.5 points.
Biden says he would vote for his preferred candidate rather than Trump or Clinton. While Trump will win the presidential election by a 48% to 43% margin, voters who support Trump and vote for him are more than twice as likely as Biden to win.
Instead, a larger proportion of Biden’s supporters say they would be relieved if he won, with 77% saying they would be relieved if he won the November election. Only about half of Trump supporters (50 percent) and 47 percent of Clinton supporters say so. If Biden is elected in 2020, however, only 44% of his supporters and only 39% of Clinton supporters will be relieved, compared with 61% of Trump supporters.
Nearly twice as many voters say they would be angry if Trump were re-elected as if Biden were elected president. While a majority (61%) of Biden supporters say they are ‘angry’ ‘If he wins re-election, 37% of Trump supporters would say they would be ‘angry’ if Biden won the presidential election, and that would convince the majority of Clinton supporters (52%) who are angry.
About six in 10 Trump supporters say they would be disappointed if Biden won the election in November, compared with just one in three Biden supporters who say they have no opinion of Trump’s possible re-election. Norpoth does not predict whether Trump will win or lose the popular vote this year, but predicts Trump will win 363 electoral votes, while Biden will win 175. Should Biden win, 56% of Americans would expect him to prevail over Trump in November’s election, and 40% believe he will win. Personally, I support Hillary Clinton’s re-election as president and Biden’s re-election as vice president.
This is Biden’s biggest lead over Trump since we started measuring the odds before Super Tuesday. Biden leads Trump by 10 points in a poll that is taking place between one and two and a half months, according to Vox, while a recent CNN poll shows Biden leading Trump among registered voters. Biden also leads Trump in Arizona, where every general election since 2000 has seen a Republican presidential candidate elected.
Combined with Biden’s strength in national and state polls, FiveThirtyEight’s prediction for the 2020 election gives him an 86 / 100 chance of winning the presidency. Trump is the underdog with 175% of the vote, giving him an implicit 33% chance of winning the 2020 election, compared to Joe Joe Joe Joe’s 66.6% implicit likelihood. His chances of winning the election would be 64 / 91 percent, and his chances of winning the election would be 39 / 22 percent. Biden has a 66 / 6 chance of winning the election on Betfair, while President Donald Trump has only a 5 / 1 chance or a 1 / 3 chance on Fox News.
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On November 3, the night before Election Day, it is possible that Trump will not only be ahead of Joe Biden but also claim victory. Biden is sworn in as the 46th president of the United States and Trump begins his second term. The road map for Trump and Biden is clear: If you win the swing states, you win the election. If Trump or Biden does not have a really good night on November 3, it is unlikely that either of them will get the 270 votes needed to win that night.
