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Why are job seekers are still optimistic about changing jobs despite recession fears

Anil Ethanur, co-founder of the specialised employment firm Xpheno, explained that replacement hiring is now the driving force behind the confidence of Indian talent.

Techie Prachi Gupta (name changed upon request) has nearly five years of experience in information technology (IT) and has worked for three different companies, most recently in November 2022 when industry layoff rumours first surfaced. Techie Prachi Gupta (name changed upon request) has nearly five years of experience in information technology (IT) and has worked for three different companies, most recently in November 2022 when industry layoff rumours first surfaced.

Gupta believed she was fortunate. Job hopping could have led to onboarding delays, a problem that is common today. Gupta considered looking into the talent market because she planned to work for her new workplace for at least two years.

She claimed that seeing so many recruiters interested in employing her “shocked” her. Two presented her with a rise of 40–50% above her previous pay. Additionally, she also got a call from the HR division of a former employer who had just laid off over 200 workers, offering a place in the company with better salary.

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Gupta is considering changing jobs once more! It’s not just her.

There are still some remnants of the Great Resignation wave in the Indian talent market, according to studies by recruitment agencies like Michael Page, Randstad, and TeamLease.

For instance, Michael Page India discovered that 75% of employees in India were “active job seekers,” meaning they are seeking right now or want to find a new job within the next 6 months. A new employment is acceptable to 23% of people who are undecided.

Both the IT and non-IT sectors continue to have a high demand for talent, particularly in the area of specialised skills. Anil Ethanur, co-founder of the specialised employment firm Xpheno, explained that replacement hiring is now the driving force behind the confidence of Indian talent.

Although businesses in the key IT talent-consuming cohorts have stopped or reduced hiring, their attrition rates have remained high.

“Enterprises don’t seem to be recruiting a lot to expand or add capacity. Enterprises do, however, seek to maintain their size and capacity, thus attrition-linked replacement recruiting is in effect, he added.

According to Xpehno statistics, the high potential cohort of Indian Unicorns and Soonicorns has drawn close to 170,000 professionals in the previous 12 months.

One hundred thousand of these were replacement hires.

Despite a decline in hiring for expansion, the top eight IT service companies needed to hire 475,000 people to keep their workforce at that level. In the fiscal year that ended in March 2023, this cohort’s total hiring, including expansion employment, totaled 560,000 lakh.

targeted hiring

Major non-IT companies are spending a lot of money on recruiting and retaining top employees, especially in industries like domestic airlines, EVs, and financial services.

While acknowledging that some companies place a premium on stability and a track record, Pankaj Gulati, Chief People Officer of Fincare SFB, said that even in these trying times, organisations will value candidates who can demonstrate their skills, adaptability, and value proposition.

In order to ensure that the most qualified and eligible individuals are chosen, the Bengaluru-based bank’s recruitment process would involve rigorous examination and selection. In this fiscal year, the bank expects to hire around 1,500 personnel.

CXO recruiting is showing a trend that is similar. Even while employers are making deliberate recruiting decisions, executive search company Korn Ferry found that there is an increasing need for employees with advanced skills as employers restructure their business models and search for future-focused roles.

Konika Chadha, Regional Market Leader of India for Korn Ferry, noted that multinational companies are implementing specific recruiting checks and controls because they are connected to international enterprises that are impacted by macroeconomic variables.

Even for firms with significant hiring ambitions like Codleo Consulting, Homesfy.in, and Mymagnet.io, the struggle to keep top performers in a cutthroat employment market and the “offer letter vs. offer letter” conflict persist.

Temporary pause

According to Randstad’s Workmonitor 2023 report, at least eight out of ten employees are optimistic about finding a new position within the next three to six months.

The staffing company saw that the reason for the temporary halt in recruiting was mainly because businesses wanted to maximise their existing bench strength before bringing on new hires.

Having said that, Randstad has already noticed an increase in recruiting intent of about 18–20% in the first quarter of 2023 compared to the first quarter of 2022.

Indeed, the desire to hire has nearly doubled in some industries, such as telecommunications, financial services, and pharmaceuticals.

Conversely, industries like e-commerce, retail, and Fast Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) have all experienced tremendous growth, with each of these industries expecting hiring to increase by more than 80%.

According to Yeshab Giri, Chief Commercial Officer of Staffing and Technologies at Randstad India, “over the next five years, the job market in India is projected to undergo a significant 20-22 percent turnover, with the most promising roles originating from the AI (Artificial Intelligence), machine learning, and data sectors.”

all eyes on the upcoming six months

The talent market is expected to stabilise over the next six months now that roughly half of the year has passed, according to Xpheno’s Ethanur.

Key talent sectors, according to him, normally can’t go without hiring for more than a couple of quarters because it affects their business prospects and future talent supply chain.

Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), Infosys, HCL Tech, Wipro, and Tech Mahindra, the top five IT firms in India, added 83,906 new workers in FY23, a 69 percent decrease from the 273,377 new workers added the year before.

As a result of the normalisation of the global economic environment, “the six months beginning in July will witness a recovery of talent action in the slowdown sectors,” Ethanur said.

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