Economy

India is expected to grow by double digits this quarter, but economists warn that this is not the complete picture.

Story Highlights
  • India is predicted to expand by double digits in the three months ending in June, but experts warn that the figures will not provide a complete picture of the country's development trajectory.
  • The South Asian country is still dealing with the aftermath of a disastrous second wave of coronavirus epidemic, which began in February but surged in April and early May.
  • The viral outbreak compelled the majority of India's industrial states to enact limited lockdown measures in order to restrict the virus's spread.

India is expected to see double digit expansion in the three months to the end of June, but economists have warned that the data do not paint the complete picture of the country’s growth trajectory. Many economists have cut their full growth forecasts for India for 2022. Economists argue that while the year-on-year figures for the current quarter show double-digit growth, this is due to a low base due to the negative pressures of recent years. 

Exports jumped in dollar terms in January-February by 60.6% from the same period a year earlier, the u.s. Customs Administration data showed Sunday, about 40% above the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists. According to an analysis from Bloomberg, US vaccination supplies will double in the coming weeks and months, allowing for a broad expansion of doses throughout the country. About 21 million firearms will be sold in India this month, according to data compiled Sunday by Bloomberg and Johns Hopkins University.

The issue has become more urgent as the global chip shortage threatens to hurt US growth as Biden tries to rebuild an economy battered by the coronavirus. 

Nonetheless, analysts believe that the economic impact of the second wave will be less severe than the one observed last year. So far, India has avoided another nationwide lockdown, instead allowing states to adopt limited shutdowns. Economists think that the country is on course to restart its expansion, albeit at a slower rate.

According to Rao, data would likely reveal that consumption slowed this quarter on a sequential basis owing to the second wave, as households had to devote more of their expenditure on hospitalisation and medical bills.

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