| |
According to a brokerage report India’s economy to contract by 12 percent in the June quarter as against a 23.9 percent contraction in the same quarter in 2020. This is the impact of state-wise lockdowns after the second wave of Pandemic.
The economy was contracted in FY21 at 7.3 percent. 2.5 months of lockdown announced by the Centre with just a four-hour notice impacted the economy badly in the first quarter with a massive 23.9 percent contraction, which improved to -17.5 percent in the second quarter.
But the economy recovered in V-shape recovery from the second half when it posted a 40 bps positive growth and in Q4 clipping at 1.6 percent, containing the overall contraction at 7.3 percent for the year.
This 12 percentage point contraction will have the economy missing a sharp V-shaped recovery this time around, unlike seen last year after the national lockdown was lifted, as consumer sentiment remains very weak this time around as people are more worried about the pandemic than last year, says Swiss brokerage UBS Securities India.
Significantly, there is a positive momentum on the ground on the vaccination front which has improved to 3.2 million doses daily in the week to June 13 from 2.5 million as of end-May.
