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India’s business activity picking up faster after second wave compared to last year says Nomura

Higher mobility suggested a pickup in services, especially transportation, reinforcing the view that May was the worst hit by the second wave and a sequential recovery was likely in June, the note said.

Similarly, power demand surged by a steep 7.8% week-on-week after a 2.2% decline recorded a week ago, while the labour participation rate inched down to 39.6% from 40.5%.

Apart from these indicators that were tracked by the index, other high-frequency indicators pointed to a mix ed performance for the goods sector in June, with the pace of increase in e-way bills matching April levels but daily railway freight revenues declining, the firm said.

“Although the vaccination pace accelerated last week, until it becomes more widespread, a third wave is a key risk with increasing mobility,” said Nomura economists Sonal Varma and Aurodeep Nandi, in the note.

From a record 8.6 million vaccinations on June 21, the number of people vaccinated on Sunday dipped to 1.7 million, official data showed.

Nomura noted that the partial reimposition of restrictions by the Maharashtra state government was a positive preemptive step to balance lives and livelihoods.

Despite such risks, Nomura saw India’s business cycle headed higher.

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Anirudha Yerunkar

Global Business Line Team
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