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Scotland’s GDP contracts by 1.9% in the first quarter of 2021

The Chief Statistician has released statistics showing that the economy contracted by 1.9% from January to March 2021.

This is the first estimate of Scotland’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for 2021 Quarter 1 (January to March). Scotland’s GDP fell by -1.9% in real terms during the first quarter of 2021. Over the same period, GDP in the UK as a whole contracted by -1.5%.

Compared to the same quarter last year, Scotland’s GDP fell by -5.4%. Over the same period, the UK as a whole fell by -6.1%. The two largest contributors to contraction this quarter were Distribution, Hotels & Catering and Government Services (particularly the Education sub-sectors).

During the first quarter output in the Construction sector grew by 2.6%, output in Production grew by 1.3%, and output in the Services sector contracted by 3.0%. The second estimate of GDP for the first quarter of 2021 will be available in Quarterly National Accounts Scotland, published on 4 August 2021. The first estimate of GDP for the second quarter of 2021 will be published on 15 September 2021.

What’s in the first estimate of GDP?

• Real terms – results have been seasonally adjusted and had the effect of price changes removed to allow for meaningful comparisons over time

• Onshore economy – figures do not include the output of offshore oil and gas extraction (which is included in the headline UK figures)

 • Revisions- Figures have not been revised, compared to those published on 5 May 2021. The GDP Quarterly National Accounts, published on 4 August 2021, will include an updated second estimate of GDP for 2021 Q1.

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Anirudha Yerunkar

Global Business Line Team
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